Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields |
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| Authors: | David B Lobell Kimberly Nicholas Cahill Christopher B Field |
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| Institution: | (1) Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA;(2) Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;(3) Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA |
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| Abstract: | For the 1980–2003 period, we analyzed the relationship between crop yield and three climatic variables (minimum temperature,
maximum temperature, and precipitation) for 12 major Californian crops: wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table
grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios. The months and climatic variables of greatest importance
to each crop were used to develop regressions relating yield to climatic conditions. For most crops, fairly simple equations
using only 2–3 variables explained more than two-thirds of observed yield variance. The types of variables and months identified
suggest that relatively poorly understood processes such as crop infection, pollination, and dormancy may be important mechanisms
by which climate influences crop yield. Recent climatic trends have had mixed effects on crop yields, with orange and walnut
yields aided, avocado yields hurt, and most crops little affected by recent climatic trends. Yield-climate relationships can
provide a foundation for forecasting crop production within a year and for projecting the impact of future climate changes. |
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