| 河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 成林.河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 成林 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省气象科学研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 小麦和水稻是世界最重要的粮食作物。利用河南省小麦和水稻的历史观测资料，结合DSSAT-CERES 小麦和ORYZA2000水稻模拟模型，分析和模拟河南省稻麦类作物在历史气候变化条件下发育期和产量的变化。结果表明：冬小麦全育期长度呈缩短趋势，但播种-越冬天数平均每10年增加1.7天，开花到乳熟天数平均每10年增加2-4天，返青后各发育期均表现出不同程度的提前；水稻各发育期均有不同程度的提前，尤其是拔节期以前，分蘖前的发育期间隔天数以缩短为主，拔节后以延长为主。雨养小麦模拟产量和水氮增产潜力均呈减少趋势；随着播种期的提前，水稻减产趋势逐渐减弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 作物模型 发育期 产量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/4/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/6/21 0:00:00 |
Responses of wheat and rice crops to climate change in Henan Province |
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| cheng lin.Responses of wheat and rice crops to climate change in Henan Province[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2009,32(4). |
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| Authors: | cheng lin |
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| Institution: | Henan Institute of Meteorological Science |
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| Abstract: | Wheat and rice are the most important alimentary crops in the world. By using the crop growth simulation model DSSAT-CERES Wheat and ORYZA2000, and the observational data for winter wheat and rice in Henan Province, the responses of phenological development and yields of wheat and rice to climate change were analyzed. The results indicated that: the growth duration of winter wheat was shortening, however, duration between seeding and wintering prolonged 1.7 days every 10 years, and duration between flowering and milky ripe delayed 2-4 days every 10 years. Most phenological stages after green turning stage moved forward; the phonological stages for rice also advanced, and the duration was shortening before tillering while extending after jointing. The simulated rainfed and potential yields was decreasing for wheat, and for rice, the yield reduction was wear off by bringing forward the sowing dates. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change crop model developmental phase yield |
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