Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS |
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| Authors: | LI Fei WANG Huijun |
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| Institution: | Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,
Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, |
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| Abstract: | The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation
from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for
Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated
against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled
general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical
EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM
can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the
major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related
anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced
EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within
the EAWM domain (20--60N, 90--150E), was 0.595. This
coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models
(range: 0.39--0.51) for the period 1969--2001; this result indicates the
advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the
ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their
interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height,
surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the
prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel
ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of
the EAWM interannual variability. |
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| Keywords: | East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability DEMETER hindcast |
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