| 印度—欧亚板块碰撞变形区的大地震时空分布特征与迁移规律 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵根模,吴中海,刘杰,张雷,左嘉梦.印度—欧亚板块碰撞变形区的大地震时空分布特征与迁移规律[J].地质力学学报,2019,25(3):324-340. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵根模 吴中海 刘杰 张雷 左嘉梦 |
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| 作者单位： | 活动构造与地壳稳定性评价重点实验室, 北京100081;中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京100081;天津地震局, 天津300201;活动构造与地壳稳定性评价重点实验室, 北京100081;中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京100081;国家测绘地理信息局地图技术审查中心,北京,100036;防灾科技学院,北京,101601 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41571013，41171009）；中国地质调查局项目（DD20160268，DD20190396） |
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| 摘 要： | 印度板块与欧亚板块在新生代期间的持续碰撞和挤压过程导致亚洲大陆发生了强烈的弥散式板内变形，并形成了一个以贝加尔湖为顶点，以喜马拉雅带为底边的近似三角形的变形区与强震活动区，即新-藏三角区。基于固体刚塑性变形平面结构，结合滑移线场网络模型，对该区历史强震活动的大范围离散式空间分布特点进行了分析解释。结合1505-1976年以来历史强震空间迁移的实例，归纳了该区历史强震活动与地震应变释放从印度板块边界→新-藏地块→两侧大陆的顺序性及定向性迁移特征，并根据对地震空间迁移规律的认识，进一步探讨了区域未来强震危险性问题。结果显示，从2000-2018年间，印度板块边界和新-藏三角区已多次发生M7.9~9.1大地震，但其东、西两侧的区域大陆地区却异常平静，没发生过7级以上大地震。依照区域强震活动的顺序性迁移特点，推测在未来几到几十年，亚洲大陆东部与中部以及喜马拉雅带东段等区域的大地震危险性较大。
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| 关 键 词： | 印度—欧亚板块碰撞 断块塑性变形 地震时间序列 强震迁移 地震危险性评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/12/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/4/10 0:00:00 |
THE TIME SPACE DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND MIGRATION LAW OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE INDIAM-EURASIAN PLATE COLLISION DEFORMATION AREA |
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| ZHAO Genmo,WU Zhonghai,LIU Jie,ZHANG Lei and ZUO Jiameng.THE TIME SPACE DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND MIGRATION LAW OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE INDIAM-EURASIAN PLATE COLLISION DEFORMATION AREA[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2019,25(3):324-340. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Genmo WU Zhonghai LIU Jie ZHANG Lei and ZUO Jiameng |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Crustal Stability Assessment, Beijing 100081, China2.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China3.Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China4.Map Technical Review Center, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation, Beijing 100036, China5.Institute of Disaster Prevention, Beijing 101601, China |
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| Abstract: | The continuous collision and compression between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate during the Cenozoic period led to a strong intraplate deformation of the Asian continent, which resulted in the formation of a triangle deformation area and strong earthquake activity area, namely the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area, with Lake Baikal as the apex and the Himalayan belt as the bottom. Based on the plane structure of solid rigid-plastic deformation and the network model of slip line field, the characteristics of large-scale discrete spatial distribution of historical strong earthquakes in this region are explained. Combined with the examples of the spatial migration of historical strong earthquakes from 1505 to 1976, the sequential and directional migration characteristics of the historical strong earthquakes and the seismic strain release from the boundary of the Indian plate-the Xinjiang-Tibet block-the two sides of the continents are summarized, and potential risks of regional strong earthquakes on the basis of the understanding of the law of seismic spatial migration are discussed. The results show that from 2000 to 2018, the boundary of the Indian plate and the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area have been hit by M7.9~9.1 earthquakes for many times; however, the east and west sides of the continent are the contrary with few earthquakes larger than M7.0. According to the sequential migration characteristics of strong seismic activities in the above seismic regions, it is believed that in the next few to decades, the east and central parts of the Asian continent and the eastern part of the Himalayan belt are at greater risk of major earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | Indian-Eurasia plate collision plastic deformation of fault block seismic time series migration of strong earthquake seismic risk assessment |
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