The impact of spatial elements on the forecasting of Spanish labour series |
| |
| Authors: | Ana M Angulo F Javier Trívez |
| |
| Institution: | 1. University of Zaragoza, Gran Vía, 2-4, 50005, Zaragoza, Spain
|
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the ability of a dynamic spatial panel data model without explanatory variables to explain a variable
of interest, in this case employment in the fifty Spanish provinces. The best model is a dynamic fixed effect with a spatial
lag structure in an equation estimated through the unconditional ML procedure. Predictions derived from this selected model
are compared with those derived from fifty seasonal ARIMA models that also treat outlier observations. The results indicate
that forecasts derived from a single estimated spatial panel data model are as accurate as those derived from the estimation
of fifty seasonal ARIMA models. This shows that spatial panel data models play an important role in forecasting. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
