| 武汉市"2016.07.06"暴雨洪涝灾害跨区域经济波及效应评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张正涛,崔鹏,李宁,刘远,邹强,黄承芳,吴圣楠.武汉市"2016.07.06"暴雨洪涝灾害跨区域经济波及效应评估研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(4):433-441. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张正涛 崔鹏 李宁 刘远 邹强 黄承芳 吴圣楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101;中国科学院?水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875;北京师范大学应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875;中国科学院?水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 成都 610041 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年项目(41907395);中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131551KYSB20160002);中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDY-SSW-DQC006);中国博士后科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为强调跨区域经济波及损失的重要程度,在已构建的灾害动态间接经济损失评估模型的基础上,本研究进一步融入多区域模块改进模型,定量评估武汉市“2016.07.06”暴雨洪涝灾害对湖北省、全国造成的波及损失。结果表明：(1)灾区外遭受的跨区域经济波及损失（24.30亿元）为武汉遭受直接经济损失（87.40亿元）的28%,是灾区武汉市遭受间接经济损失（5.55亿元）的4.4倍,其中湖北省（除武汉市外）受到的经济波及损失为15.57亿元,全国（除湖北省外）为8.73亿元;(2)灾区外制造业受到的波及损失最大,其中湖北省（除武汉外）受损6.52亿元,全国（除湖北省外）受损2.94亿元,分别占各自总波及损失的42%与34%。其他受损行业依次为农业、其他服务业、建筑业等。建议政府决策者保持对跨区域经济波及损失的关注,通过认清损失产生机理制定有针对性的减小损失措施,开展更科学、全面的风险防范与灾后恢复重建。
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| 关 键 词： | 自然灾害 损失评估 经济波及 间接经济损失 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-11-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-01-21 |
Research on the assessment of the multi-regional economic ripple effect caused by disasters—a case study of a flood disaster in Wuhan city on July 6, 2016 |
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| ZHANG Zheng-Tao,CUI Peng,LI Ning,LIU Yuan,ZOU Qiang,HUANG Cheng-Fang,WU Sheng-Nan.Research on the assessment of the multi-regional economic ripple effect caused by disasters—a case study of a flood disaster in Wuhan city on July 6, 2016[J].Advances in Climate Change,2020,16(4):433-441. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zheng-Tao CUI Peng LI Ning LIU Yuan ZOU Qiang HUANG Cheng-Fang WU Sheng-Nan |
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| Abstract: | In order to quantitatively emphasize the importance of economic ripple effect, this paper further integrates the multi-regional module to develop a new assessment model based on the established dynamic indirect economic loss assessment model, and then quantitatively evaluates the economic ripple effect of Hubei province and China caused by a disaster—“2016.07.06 Wuhan Flood”. The results show that: (1) the economic ripple effect suffered by outside disaster area (2430 million CNY) is 28% of direct economic loss (8740 million CNY), which is 4.4 times of indirect economic loss (550 million CNY) suffered by disaster area Wuhan city. The economic ripple loss of Hubei province (except Wuhan city) and China (except Hubei province) is 1557 million CNY and 873 million CNY, respectively; (2) the manufacturing industry in the outside disaster area suffers the most economic ripple effect, including 652 million CNY in Hubei province (except Wuhan city) and 294 million CNY in China (except Hubei province), accounting for 42% and 34% of the total economic ripple losses, respectively. Other sectors with serious damages successively are agriculture, other services and construction, etc. It is recommended that the government policy makers keep focus on the economic ripple loss coming from other regions, formulate targeted loss reduction measures by recognizing the mechanism of loss generation, and carry out more scientific and comprehensive risk prevention and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. |
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| Keywords: | Disaster Loss assessment Economic ripple effect Indirect economic loss |
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