| 橡胶主产区农户“橡胶依赖”及其影响因素 ——基于西双版纳612份胶农调查数据 |
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| 引用本文： | 李达,张绍文.橡胶主产区农户“橡胶依赖”及其影响因素 ——基于西双版纳612份胶农调查数据[J].热带地理,2020,40(6):1085-1093. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李达 张绍文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京城市学院 城镇化研究院，北京 100083;2.北京林业大学 经济管理学院，北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71673008) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于西双版纳18个样本村、612个农户、跨时6年的面板数据，利用Pearson相关系数测度了2012—2014和2014—2018年2个阶段“投入—产出”结构之间的拟合程度，分析了橡胶主产区农户橡胶依赖的变化情况；并通过构建Tobit模型分析了橡胶路径依赖的核心影响因素。结果表明：1）橡胶主产区的橡胶依赖呈下降趋势。2）橡胶依赖符合自增强机制假设。橡胶产出依赖程度具有传递效应，表明橡胶依赖可以逆势调控，可以利用政策补贴等手段增强投入激励，提高本期橡胶依赖，进而提高下一期橡胶依赖。3）收益递增并不必然导致橡胶依赖。农户更加看重未来的期望收益，提升期望收益才能保障农户种植橡胶的积极性。4）橡胶依赖表现为土地依赖。土地种植橡胶后具备了“专用资产属性”，转变种植结构需要付出较大的时间和资金成本。5）橡胶依赖还表现为海拔依赖。主要供给橡胶的低海拔地区，农户调整橡胶种植规模的时间成本较高海拔地区小，更容易毁弃胶林，应将低海拔地区做为橡胶产业政策的关注点。
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| 关 键 词： | 橡胶主产区 橡胶依赖 Pearson相关系数 Tobit模型 自增强机制 投入—产出结构 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-16 |
Farms' "Rubber Dependence" and Influencing Factors in Major Rubber Producing Areas: Empirical Evidence from 612 Farm Households in Xishuangbanna |
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| Da Li,Shaowen Zhang.Farms' "Rubber Dependence" and Influencing Factors in Major Rubber Producing Areas: Empirical Evidence from 612 Farm Households in Xishuangbanna[J].Tropical Geography,2020,40(6):1085-1093. |
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| Authors: | Da Li Shaowen Zhang |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Urbanization Research, Beijing City University, Beijing 100083, China;2.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on panel data of 18 sample villages and 612 farming households in Xishuangbanna, Pearson correlation coefficients were used in this study to measure the degree of fit between the two stages of "input-output" structure across six years, in 2012-2014 and 2014-2018. We measured changes in farmers' rubber dependence in the main producing areas and analyzed the core influencing factors based on a Tobit model. The results are as follows. 1) Rubber dependence in the main rubber production areas is decreasing. With the reduction in rubber dependence, China's domestic rubber supply will decrease, and China's rubber import dependence will increase, posing a threat to industrial security. 2) Rubber dependence fulfills the assumption of a self-reinforcement mechanism. The degree of dependence on rubber output has a pass-through effect, indicating that rubber dependence can be regulated against the trend. Therefore, policy subsidies can be used to enhance input incentives to increase rubber dependence in this period and the next, which will effectively guarantee the scale of rubber supply. 3) Increasing returns do not necessarily lead to rubber dependence. Farmers pay more attention to anticipated future income, and raising the expected income can guarantee the willingness of farmers to grow rubber. 4) Rubber dependence is manifested as land dependence. The land has "special asset attributes" after planting rubber, and changing the planting structure demands great time and capital costs. 5) Rubber dependence is also manifested as altitude dependence. In low-altitude areas that mainly supply rubber, the time cost for farmers to adjust the scale of rubber planting is relatively small, and it is easier to destroy rubber forests. Low-altitude areas should be the focus of rubber industry policy. Rubber is an important strategic resource. Once farmers begin large-scale felling of rubber trees, the waiting period to resume production will be longer, which could easily put China's rubber industry in a passive position. Therefore, it is recommended that during the period of low rubber prices and the gradual decrease in regional rubber dependence, appropriate industrial support should be given to farmers to prevent a sudden drop in the scale of rubber supply and ensure the safety of the national rubber industry. |
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| Keywords: | main rubber producing areas rubber dependence Pearson correlation coefficient Tobit model self enhancement mechanism input-output structure |
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