| 基于灰色GM（1,1）模型的城市工业用水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭法强.基于灰色GM（1,1）模型的城市工业用水量预测[J].地下水,2010,32(3):108-110. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭法强 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆宏昌水利规划设计公司,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,并以实例（抚顺地区1994~2004年工业用水资料）建立灰色GM（1,1）预测模型,运用残差检验与后验差检验2种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达98.72%。用所建立的模型对抚顺2001~2004年工业用水量进行外推预测。结果表明,该灰色模型用于工业用水量预测,符合其灰色特性,通用性好,并且所需数据少,计算量适中,预测结果与当地实际情况比较吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 精度检验 工业用水量 |
Prediction of City Industrial Water Demand Based on Grey GM(1,1)model |
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| GUO Fa-qiang.Prediction of City Industrial Water Demand Based on Grey GM(1,1)model[J].Groundwater,2010,32(3):108-110. |
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| Authors: | GUO Fa-qiang |
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| Institution: | GUO Fa-qiang(Xinjiang Hongchang Water Resources Plan and Design Company Urumchi 830000,Xinjiang) |
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| Abstract: | The modeling principle of grey theory and the recognition method of model parameter were presented.Taking Fushun region as a case,a grey GM（1,1） model was established based on the data of industrial water from 1994 to 2004.The precision test of residual error examination and posterior difference examination showed that the fitting precision reached 98.72%.The model was applied to the prediction of industrial water demand in Fushun region from 2001 to 2004.The result indicates that this grey model used in the industrial water demand prediction conforms to its grey characteristic.The model has the advantages of good versatility,few requirements of data,and moderate computation quantity,and the result accords with the practical condition. |
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| Keywords: | GM（1 1） model precision test and industrial water demand |
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