Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya |
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| Authors: | K N Khattri |
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| Institution: | (1) 100 Rajendra Nagar, 248 001 Dehradun |
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| Abstract: | Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have
been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years
(beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir
seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities
of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably
to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains. |
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| Keywords: | Himalaya great earthquakes probabilities seismic hazard |
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