| 电离层暴时的foF2预报技术研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈丹俊,吴健,王先义.电离层暴时的foF2预报技术研究[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(1):18-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈丹俊 吴健 王先义 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国电波传播研究所，青岛266107 2 电波环境特性及模化技术国防重点实验室，北京102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 电离层是一个非常复杂的非线性系统.本文利用BP网络非线性输入-输出映射的特点预报电离层F2层临界频率.由于foF2在太阳活动高低年、不同经纬度、不同季节有着不同变化特点，本文仅以海口站、长春站的数据为例分别对1994年和2001年的foF2进行预报，预报结果表明发生电离层暴时用神经网络法预报foF2比国际参考电离层更有优势.此外，由于不同用户对预报精度的需求不同，本文以海口站2000、2001年的预报结果为例构建了残差模型.
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| 关 键 词： | foF2 暴时预报 BP网络 残差模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733（2007）01-0018-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-26 |
A technology study of fo F2 forecasting during the ionospheric disturbance |
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| CHEN Dan-Jun,WU Jian,WANG Xian-Yi.A technology study of fo F2 forecasting during the ionospheric disturbance[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(1):18-23. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Dan-Jun WU Jian WANG Xian-Yi |
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| Institution: | 1.China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, Qingdao 266107, China2 National Key Laboratory of ElectroMagnetic Environment, China Research Institu te of Radiowave Propagation, Beijing 102206, China |
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| Abstract: | The ionosphere of the Earth is an especially complicated and nonlinear system. Back Propagation(BP)network is applied to forecast f-oF-2 because it is nonlinear between input and output of network.Taking into account of the different characteristics of f-oF-2 variety with solar activities,geographical positions and seasons,we present an example of the ionospheric f-oF-2 forecast using the ionospheric sounding data at Haikou and Changchun,China,during ionospheric disturbances in 1994 and 2001.This example indicates that the method ANN(Artificial Neural Network) for f-oF-2 forecast is superior to IRI(International Reference Ionosphere).In addition,the residual error model is built based on the forecasting results in 2000 and 2001 at Haikou,China for different requirements of various users. |
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| Keywords: | foF2 |
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