| Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭云霞,侯一筠,齐鹏.Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比[J].海洋学报,2020,42(7):64-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭云霞 侯一筠 齐鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院海洋研究所，山东 青岛 266071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC1407003，2016YFC1402000）；国家自然科学基金（U1606402，41421005）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 Monte-Carlo模拟 经验路径模型 风场模型 极值风速 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/26 0:00:00 |
Comparison of extreme wind speeds predicted by Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical track model |
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| Guo Yunxi,Hou Yijun,Qi Peng.Comparison of extreme wind speeds predicted by Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical track model[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2020,42(7):64-77. |
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| Authors: | Guo Yunxi Hou Yijun Qi Peng |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China3.Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China4.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China |
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| Abstract: | Typhoon is one of the most serious natural disasters in southeast coastal region of China. In this paper, the traditional Monte-Carlo simulation and the advanced empirical track model are respectively used to predict the extreme wind speed (10-min mean at 10 m height) of typhoons in the southeast coastal region of China, and the prediction results of two methods are compared. An area extending 200 km inland from the coastline is divided into 0.25°×0.25° grid cells and each grid is taken as the research point. Firstly, the Monte-Carlo method is used to generate virtual typhoons of 1 000-year for each research point. Then, we use the empirical track model to construct virtual typhoons of 1 000-year in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, from which typhoon events affecting each research site are extracted by using the simulation circle method. Next, the Yan Meng wind field model is used to calculate the wind speed of the extracted typhoons, from which samples of maximum wind speed can be derived. Finally, the extreme wind speed of different return periods for each research point is predicted by the extreme value distribution. Through comparison, we find that in some inland areas, the predicted wind speeds by empirical track model are slightly higher than those by Monte-Carlo method, and in most coastal areas the opposite is true. This is mainly caused by the difference of the central pressure of the virtual typhoons constructed by two methods and the uncertainty of the model itself. The research results of this paper can provide useful reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation system. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon Monte-Carlo simulation empirical track model wind field model extreme wind speed |
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