Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano,Iceland |
| |
| Authors: | Susan J Leadbetter Matthew C Hort |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK;2. Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;3. Department of Geology, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland;4. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.2 – Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;5. Intituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, sezione Catania, Piazza Roma, 2 – 95123 Catania, Italy;6. Institute of Geosciences, Mineralogy – Geochemistry, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg, Albertstrasse 23b, 79104 Freiburg, Germany;1. School of Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom;2. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, United Kingdom |
| |
| Abstract: | Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
