| 气候变化下贵州省水资源安全空间评价及敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘丽颖.气候变化下贵州省水资源安全空间评价及敏感性分析[J].中国岩溶,2020,39(5):714-723. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘丽颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 社会经济应用统计重庆市重点实验室/重庆工商大学数学与统计学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市科学技术委员会项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxm0760)；重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN201800825)；重庆工商大学重点平台开放项目(KFJJ2018068)；重庆工商大学科研启动项目(1956008) |
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| 摘 要： | 探讨气候变化下水资源安全的时空演变规律，对喀斯特地区水资源安全的保障有着重要意义。文章采用GA-BP神经网络模型，研究了贵州省水资源安全的空间分异特征，并分析其对气候要素变化的敏感性。结果表明:（1）研究区水资源安全有较强的空间异质性。2001－2015年，黔南的水资源安全一直是全省最差的地区，贵阳的水资源安全改善最为明显，变化幅度最小的是安顺；（2）当变动率相同时，年平均降雨量的变动对水资源安全的影响最大，其增加10%时水资源安全指数上升0.95%，单位地表水资源量变动的影响其次，单位地下水资源量变动的影响最小；（3）对年平均降雨量变化最为敏感的地区是遵义、毕节、六盘水和黔西南。研究结果可为贵州省水资源的调控和开发提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 贵州省 水资源安全 空间评价 气候变化 敏感性 |
Spatial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of water resource security in Guizhou Province under climate change |
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| LIU Liying.Spatial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of water resource security in Guizhou Province under climate change[J].Carsologica Sinica,2020,39(5):714-723. |
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| Authors: | LIU Liying |
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| Institution: | Chongqing Key Laboratory of Social Economy and Applied Statistics/College of Mathematics and Statistics， Chongqing Technology and Business University |
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| Abstract: | It is of great significance to the protection of water resource security in karst areas by the analysis of spatio-temporal evolution of water resource security under the climate change. Using GA-BP neural network model， the spatial differentiation of water resource security in Guizhou Province was evaluated， and its sensitivity to climate change was analyzed. The results show that the water resource security took on obvious spatial heterogeneity in the study area. From 2001 to 2015， the water resource security in Qiannan was always the weakest in province. Guiyang improved the most obviously， and Anshun changed the least. When the rate of change is same， the change of annual average rainfall has the greatest impact on the water resource security， with the increase of 10%， the water resource security index increases by 0.95%， followed by the impact of unit surface water resource change， and the unit groundwater resource change had minimal impact. The most sensitive areas to rainfall change are Zunyi， Bijie， Liupanshui and Qianxinan. The results can provide scientific and technological support for the regulation and development of water resources in Guizhou Province. |
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