| 从地质时期大气CO_2浓度与温度的对应关系分析现代气候变暖不确定性 |
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| 引用本文： | 马明明,刘秀铭,吕镔,郭晖,雷培文,赵国永,刘植,李平原.从地质时期大气CO_2浓度与温度的对应关系分析现代气候变暖不确定性[J].福建地理,2012(1):69-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马明明 刘秀铭 吕镔 郭晖 雷培文 赵国永 刘植 李平原 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境与气候变化研究院,兰州730000 [3]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007 [4]Macquafie大学环境与地理系,澳大利亚悉尼NSW2109 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（40830105、41072124、41021091） |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化问题是近年来国际社会所关注的热点,对于近代全球是否在变暖？以及驱动变暖的因素到底是什么？是自然过程还是人为作用？科学家们一直对此有着不同的见解.政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）认为现在全球变暖是因为人类活动排放了大量CO2,其浓度增加而导致增温,但是很多科学家并不赞同.为了理清这一问题,本研究整合了近年来有关地质时期及现代大气CO2浓度与温度的关系数据,对其进行了梳理分析,结果显示不论是从地质年代的长尺度上来看,还是从近代的短尺度上来看,CO2浓度变化与全球气温变化之间都不存在一个足以令人信服的关系,因此,以此证明现在温度的增加是由于CO2浓度增加所引起的是不科学的.关于温度变化的驱动因子还存在很大的不确定性,也就不能明确地判断大气温度增加的主导因素是自然过程还是人为作用.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 CO2浓度 温度 不确定性 |
Modern Global Warming and Its Uncertainties Based on the Relationship between CO_2 Concentration and Temperature from Geological Records |
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| MA Ming-ming,LIU Xiu-ming,LV Bin,GUO Hui,LEI Pei-wen,ZHAO Guo-yong,LIU Zhi,LI Ping-yuan.Modern Global Warming and Its Uncertainties Based on the Relationship between CO_2 Concentration and Temperature from Geological Records[J].Fujian Geography,2012(1):69-75. |
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| Authors: | MA Ming-ming LIU Xiu-ming LV Bin GUO Hui LEI Pei-wen ZHAO Guo-yong LIU Zhi LI Ping-yuan |
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| Institution: | 1.a.Research School of Arid Environment and Climate Change, b.Key Laboratory of Western China′s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China; 2.School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China; 3.Department of Environment and Geography,Macquarie University,Sydney NSW 2109,Australia) |
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| Abstract: | Global warming has become a great focus for international community in recent years.However,did it really happen？ What factors have driven and are still driving it？ How to identify the roles of natural and man-made process？ Scientists have different opinions on these questions.IPCC asserted that modern global warming was caused by the increase of CO2 concentration mainly due to human activities.However,many scientists did not agree with this statement.In order to sort out this problem,we investigated the published data concerning the relations of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature during various geological periods.The results show,both from the geological time scale and from the modern short time scale,no convincing relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature can prove that the increasing temperature nowadays is caused by the increasing CO2 concentration.This indicates the great uncertainty about driving factors on temperature increasing,nor can we determine the main reason of global warming by now. |
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| Keywords: | global warming CO2 concentration temperature uncertainties |
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