| Abstract: | Volcanic Risk has been defined as the product: R = Value × Vulnerability × Hazard, where value is the total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcani eruption, the vulnerability is the percentage of value at risk for a given volcanic event, and the hazard is the probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon.We used this definition to evaluate the Risk of loss of human lives for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius. Value has been determined based on the total number of inhabitants living in areas that could be affected by an eruption. Vulnerability is based on the relative probability of deaths as a result of different volcanic phenomena (tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, etc.). Hazard is evaluated based on the absolute probability of a given phenomenon in a certain area. This last parameter is the most difficult to evaluate.We subdivided the activity of Vesuvius, that produces risk of loss of human lives, into three classes of eruptions, based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. We assume that the events of each class are distributed according to a poissonian distribution (this is demonstrated for VEI = 3, and inferred for the other classes), so that we can evaluate the absolute probability of an eruption for each class within a given time span. We use a time window of 10 years and evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of at least one eruption for VEI = 3, 4, 5; the probability is respectively: P3 = 0.09896, P4 = 0.01748, P5 = 0.00298We have made a hazard evaluation for the entire Vesuvian area as well as an evaluation of Volcanic Risk.The obtained map shows that the areas with higher risk are on the southern side of Vesuvius, in the coastal region where each town is characterized by an average Risk of 1000 inhabitants/10 years. The risk regularly decreases with increasing distance from the volcano. The risk is mostly due to the events with VEI = 3 and 4, as the most destructive effects of VEI = 5 are counterbalanced by the lower probability of such events.The map of volcanic risk is not intended to predict the loss of human lives of an eruption, but to give a methodology that permits to identify those areas where it is necessary to operate in order to reduce the risk of an eruption before it occurs. |
