| 天气预报评分方法评述 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁金才.天气预报评分方法评述[J].南京气象学院学报,1995,18(1):143-150. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁金才 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文按定性预报、百分率预报和形态预报3类预报形式，分别概述了常用的验证评分方法。提出了预报评分方法应遵循的7条准则，并以此为依据，针对强对流天气等小概率事件的预报，讨论了各种评分方法的适用性。最后，对各类预报形式的验证评分，提出了最佳的方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气预报 评分法 定性预报 |
RCVIEW OF WEATHER PREDICTION VERIFYING TECHNIQUES |
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| Ding Jincai.RCVIEW OF WEATHER PREDICTION VERIFYING TECHNIQUES[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1995,18(1):143-150. |
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| Authors: | Ding Jincai |
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| Abstract: | Usual verification techniques are outlined for categorical,probability and patternforecasts with seven criteria proposed for the verifications. Accordingly,the applicability of eachof the three metheds is addressed with reference to small-probability events like severe convectiveweather. Finallv,an optimal scheme is developed for each of the techniques. |
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| Keywords: | verification categorical forecast probability forecast pattern forecast small-probability event forecast |
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