Environmental influences on potential recruitment of Pink shrimp,Farfantepenaeus duorarum, from Florida Bay nursery grounds |
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Authors: | Joan A Browder Victor R Restrepo Jason K Rice Michael B Robblee Zoula Zein-Eldin |
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Institution: | 1. Southeast Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 75 Virginia, Beach Drive, 33149, Miami, Florida 2. Cooperative Unit for Fisheries Education and Research Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, 33149, Miami, Florida 3. Florida Caribbean Science Center United States Geological Survey Biological Research Division, Florida International University, 33199, Miami, Florida 4. Southeast Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 4700 Avenue U, 77550, Galveston, Texas
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Abstract: | Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp,Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory
simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas pink
shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the
same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate
cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlementstage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western
Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year
differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated
harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive
models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly
density estimates for juvenile pink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships
of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental
variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly
to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded
similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the
concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches. |
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