| 半年度地震趋势数值预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李媛媛,吴东.半年度地震趋势数值预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(3):58-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李媛媛 吴东 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国太原,030021,山西省地震局 |
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| 基金项目： | 山西省地震局科研项目SBK-0608 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用"自激励门限自回归模型"(SETAR)对山西、河北平原带及郯庐带1970年以来半年度最高震级序列进行了分析计算,给出了1998年以来山西、河北平原带及郯庐带半年度最高预测震级。结果表明,该模型对半年度地震趋势预测具有良好的预测效果,这种建模方法有效,模型可信。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震趋势 数值模型 预测 |
A numerical prediction of half-yearly earthquake tendency |
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| Li Yuanyuan,Wu Dong.A numerical prediction of half-yearly earthquake tendency[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2010,31(3):58-64. |
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| Authors: | Li Yuanyuan Wu Dong |
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| Institution: | Li Yuanyuan and Wu Dong (Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030021, China) |
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| Abstract: | The highest half-yearly magnitude series of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and the Tanlu seismic belt since 1970 have been analyzed and calculat- ed by use of self-exciting threshold autoregressive model （SETAR）. The highest predicted magnitudes of the Shanxi seismic belt, the Pingyuan seismic belt in Hebei Province and Tanlu seismic belt since 1998 are presented. The result indicates that the model has good prediction effect on half-yearly earthquake tendency and that the modeling method is effective and the model is reliable. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake tendency numerical model prediction |
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