| 基于IWAP的广西干湿演变尺度效应与过程识别 |
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| 引用本文： | 田忆,杨云川,谢鑫昌,廖丽萍,韦钧培,周津羽,莫崇勋.基于IWAP的广西干湿演变尺度效应与过程识别[J].热带气象学报,2020,36(5):699-712. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田忆 杨云川 谢鑫昌 廖丽萍 韦钧培 周津羽 莫崇勋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广西大学土木建筑工程学院, 广西 南宁 530004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目51609041国家自然科学基金项目41901132广西自然科学基金项目2019GXNSFAA185015西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室开放基金课题2017KFKT-3 |
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| 摘 要： | 伴随着全球变化和区域旱涝加剧，明晰最佳表达时间尺度，开展精细化旱涝演变监测和过程识别、支撑业务化精准预警是当前有效应对旱涝灾害的迫切需求。针对广西旱涝并存且频繁交替现象，采用距平改进的加权平均降水指数（IWAP）分析了区域日、候、旬、月、季尺度1961—2017年气象干湿演变监测的尺度效应; 并结合游程理论和极端事件强度-过程检测方法（EID）对典型干旱、湿润事件过程进行识别。结果表明:（1）时间尺度越小（如日、候），IWAP对广西大气干湿快速频繁交替波动和空间格局变化监测效果越好; （2）日与候尺度IWAP对广西干湿面积变化监测具有强正相关一致性，其他尺度间的相关性普遍较弱，季尺度结果存在较显著的累加抵消现象，数值明显小于其他尺度; （3）各时间尺度IWAP对广西总干旱、总湿润事件频次监测差异小于各尺度间同等级干湿事件的频次差异，日与候、旬与月尺度分别表达了广西干湿事件相近的演变模态和强度分布; （4）文中方法对广西干湿演变过程及起讫时间识别效果良好，且日尺度能更好地揭示骤发性干旱和突发极端降雨湿润现象。
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| 关 键 词： | 干湿演变 IWAP指数 尺度效应 EID方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-15 |
SCALE EFFECT AND PROCESS RECOGNITION OF DRY-WET EVOLUTION IN GUANGXI BASED ON IWAP |
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| TIAN Yi,YANG Yun-chuan,XIE Xin-chang,LIAO Li-ping,WEI Jun-pei,ZHOU Jin-yu,MO Chong-xun.SCALE EFFECT AND PROCESS RECOGNITION OF DRY-WET EVOLUTION IN GUANGXI BASED ON IWAP[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2020,36(5):699-712. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Yi YANG Yun-chuan XIE Xin-chang LIAO Li-ping WEI Jun-pei ZHOU Jin-yu MO Chong-xun |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China2.State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China3.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China |
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| Abstract: | With global climate change and the intensification of regional drought and flood, it is urgent to identify the optimal time scale, carry out refined drought and flood evolution monitoring and process identification, and support accurate early warning so as to effectively respond to drought and flood disasters. In view of the coexistence and frequent alternations of drought and flood in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the current research adopts the anomalous improved weighted average of precipitation index (IWAP) to analyze the scale effect of the regional meteorological dry-wet evolution monitoring from 1961 to 2017 on one-day, five-day, ten-day, monthly and seasonal scales. The process of typical drought and wetting events is identified based on the theory of running distance and the method of 'extreme' intensity-duration (EID). The results show that: (1) the smaller the time scale, e.g., daily and five-day scale, the better the monitoring effect of IWAP on the rapid and frequent alternation and spatial pattern change of the air in Guangxi. (2) The daily and five-day scale IWAP has a strong positive correlation consistency in the monitoring of the dry and wet area in Guangxi. The correlation between other scales is generally weak. (3) The difference of IWAP in the frequency of total drought and total wetting events in Guangxi is smaller than the frequency difference of dry and wet events of the same level among different scales. The scales of one day, pentad, ten day and month respectively expresse similar evolution modes and intensity distribution of dry and wet events in Guangxi. (4) The method in this research performs well in indentifying the dry-wet evolution in Guangxi as well as the starting and ending time of the evolution, and the daily scale can better reveal the phenomenon of sudden drought, and sudden extreme rainfall and wetting. |
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| Keywords: | dry-wet evolution IWAP index scale effect EID method |
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