| 海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 庄 圆,纪棋严,左军成,李直龙,罗凤云.海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响[J].海洋科学进展,2021,39(1):20-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 庄 圆 纪棋严 左军成 李直龙 罗凤云 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院,浙江 舟山 316022;浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院,浙江 舟山 316022;浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院,浙江 舟山 316022;浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院,浙江 舟山 316022;浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院,浙江 舟山 316022 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目—“全球变化及应对”重点专项——海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究（2017YFA0604902） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于中国沿海10个验潮站资料,利用皮尔森Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)模型探讨了典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景下21世纪海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响。结果表明:海平面上升将显著缩短极值水位的重现期。在RCP8.5情景下极值水位的重现期缩短最为显著。预估到2050年,在RCP8.5情景下,所研究的中国沿海地区潮位站的百年一遇极值水位将变为9~43 a一遇。到2100年,在RCP8.5情景下,百年一遇极值水位变为1~18 a一遇。当前极值水位的低概率事件将在2100年变得普遍,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年千年一遇的几乎每两百年发生一次。由于极值水位的重现期会随着气候变化而缩短,未来沿海地区将会面临更严峻的风险与挑战。
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| 关 键 词： | 重现期 极值水位 海平面上升 中国沿海地区 气候变化 风险管理 |
Effects of Sea-Level Rise on the Recurrence Periods of Extreme Water Levels in Coastal Areas of China |
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| ZHUANG Yuan,JI Qi-yan,ZUO Jun-cheng,LI Zhi-long,LUO Feng-yun.Effects of Sea-Level Rise on the Recurrence Periods of Extreme Water Levels in Coastal Areas of China[J].Advances in Marine Science,2021,39(1):20-29. |
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| Authors: | ZHUANG Yuan JI Qi-yan ZUO Jun-cheng LI Zhi-long LUO Feng-yun |
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| Institution: | Marine Science and Technology College, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of 10 tide-gauge stations along the coasts of China,the effects of sea-level rise on the recurrence of extreme water level of China's coastal areas in the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenario were explored with the PearsonⅢ(P-Ⅲ)model.The results show that sea level rise may significantly shorten the recurrence of extreme water level.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the recurrence of extreme water level was shortened most significantly.The once-in-a-century extreme water level at the 10 tide stations are estimated to change to recurrence periods of 9-43 years by 2050 and 1-18 years by 2100.In generally,the current low probability events of extreme water level is expected to be common by 2100.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the 1000-year recurrence period will be shortened to almost 200 years by 2100. |
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| Keywords: | recurrence period extreme water level sea level rise coast of China climate change risk management |
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