| 青藏高原雪灾变化对热带海洋海温异常响应的数值模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘彩红,余锦华,方珂,杨延华.青藏高原雪灾变化对热带海洋海温异常响应的数值模拟[J].气象科学,2020,40(6):810-818. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘彩红 余锦华 方珂 杨延华 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点试验室, 南京 210044;青海省气候中心, 西宁 810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 青海省科技厅基础研究项目（2019-ZJ-603）；中国气象局重点项目（2019ZDIANXM11） |
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| 摘 要： | 采用青藏高原72个气象台站日积雪观测资料及 Hadley 中心海温月平均资料，在分析高原雪灾频数与海温异常关系的基础上，利用ECHAM5 模式进行雪灾变化对热带海洋关键海域 SSTA响应的敏感性试验。结果表明：（1）1978-2014年青藏高原冬半年雪灾频数总体呈减少趋势，减幅为3.4次/（10 a），尤以1998年后极为显著。雪灾空间上表现出自北向南递增的分布形式，高值区主要集中在喜马拉雅山脉北坡及嘉黎地区，而柴达木盆地及青海东部农业区为雪灾发生低值区。（2）雪灾频数变化与赤道中东太平洋、热带印度洋海温异常相关显著，敏感性试验表明，在 El Niño模态强迫下，东亚大槽偏弱，新地岛及乌拉尔山地区形成阻塞高压，偏北气流引导冷空气从西伯利亚通道南下，在高原堆积，阿拉伯海暖湿气流经伊朗高原输送至青藏高原；而在印度洋偶极子型海温模态强迫下，中纬欧亚大陆显示正异常，形成高压，同纬度西北太平洋强的负异常，使西伯利亚冷空气与西北太平洋南下湿润气流在南海转为偏南风进入高原，北印度洋异常气旋使部分南海-孟加拉湾暖湿气流进入高原，为高原降雪提供了水汽条件。
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| 关 键 词： | 雪灾 海温异常 响应模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/1/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/7/6 0:00:00 |
Numerical simulation of the response of the snow disaster on the Tibetan Plateau to the anomalous tropical ocean temperature |
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| LIU Caihong,YU Jinhu,FANG Ke,YANG Yanhua.Numerical simulation of the response of the snow disaster on the Tibetan Plateau to the anomalous tropical ocean temperature[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2020,40(6):810-818. |
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| Authors: | LIU Caihong YU Jinhu FANG Ke YANG Yanhua |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the daily snow cover observation data from 72 stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Center are used. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the frequency of plateau snow disasters and sea temperature anomalies, the ECHAM5 model is used to respond to the SSTA(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) response of snow disasters to key tropical sea areas. Sensitivity test. The results show that:(1) from 1978 to 2014, the frequency of snow disasters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the first half of the year showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 3.4 times/(10 a). The decrease in snow disasters after 1998 was particularly significant. The snow disaster spatially shows an increasing distribution form from north to south. The high-value areas are mainly concentrated in the northern slope of the Himalayas and the Jiali area, while the Qaidam Basin and the agricultural areas in eastern Qinghai are low-value areas where snow disasters occur. (2) The frequency change of snow disasters is significantly related to the anomalies of SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific, and the tropical Indian Ocean. Sensitivity tests have shown that under El Niño modal forcing, the trough of East Asia is weak, and the Xindi Island and the Ural Mountains form high resistance. The north air flow guides cold air from the south of the Siberian channel and accumulates on the plateau. The warm and humid air flow from the Arabian Sea is transported to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through the Iranian plateau; the formation of high pressure and strong negative anomalies in the Northwest Pacific at the same latitude caused the cold air of Siberia and the humid airflow southwest of the Pacific Northwest to turn into the southerly winds in the South China Sea and entered the plateau provides water vapor conditions. |
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| Keywords: | snow disaster sea temperature anomaly response simulation |
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