| 基于投入产出方法的气象服务综合经济效益评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴亚玲,吴先华,郭际,陈云峰.基于投入产出方法的气象服务综合经济效益评估[J].南京气象学院学报,2015,7(6):525-533. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴亚玲 吴先华 郭际 陈云峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 深圳市国家气候观象台, 深圳, 518040;南京信息工程大学气候与气象灾害协同创新中心, 南京, 210044;南京信息工程大学气候与气象灾害协同创新中心, 南京, 210044;中国气象局气象宣传与科普中心, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71373131,71140014,71410307025,91546117);国家软科学计划(2011GXQ4B025);公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806017,GYHY201506051);国家社科基金(11CGL100);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 如何评估气象服务带来的综合经济效益,一直是人们关注的重点和难点.以投入产出表的分配系数、消耗系数和列昂捷夫逆矩阵为核心,提出了关联经济效益、间接经济效益和完全经济效益的概念和算法,并以深圳市2012年的气象服务为例对方法进行验证,得到了一系列富于启示意义的结论.如:1)由于产业经济系统内部的关联性,气象服务带来的关联经济效益、间接经济效益和完全经济效益值较大,应引起全社会的关注和重视;2)深圳市气象服务的投入与完全经济效益比值区间约为1:134.34~1:228.378,远大于以往研究1:30~1:51的结果;3)传统的气象服务对象如农林牧渔业、建筑业等带来服务经济效益偏低,未来应重视向研究与试验发展业,综合技术服务业,租赁和商务服务业,居民服务和其他服务业,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业等服务产业提供气象服务,提高气象服务给社会带来的综合经济效益.
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| 关 键 词： | 气象服务效益 直接经济效益 关联经济效益 间接经济效益 完全经济效益 投入产出 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/6/28 0:00:00 |
Calculation of indirect and complete economic benefits of weather service based on input-output model |
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| WU Yaling,WU Xianhu,GUO Ji and CHEN Yunfeng.Calculation of indirect and complete economic benefits of weather service based on input-output model[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2015,7(6):525-533. |
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| Authors: | WU Yaling WU Xianhu GUO Ji and CHEN Yunfeng |
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| Institution: | Shenzhen National Climate Observatory, Shenzhen 518040;Collaborative Innovation Center on Climate and Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;Collaborative Innovation Center on Climate and Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;Publicity and Popularization Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | How to evaluate the integrated economic benefits of weather service is an important and difficult issue.The definitions and calculations of direct economic benefit,relevant economic benefit,indirect economic benefit and complete economic benefit are introduced,then the evaluation models for weather service are proposed based on the input-output model,consumption factor and Leontief inverse matrix.The Shenzhen''s weather service in 2012 is taken as an example to test the proposed evaluation model,which leads to some interesting and meaningful conclusions.Due to the internal relevance within industrial system,the weather service brings great relevant economic benefit,indirect economic benefit as well as complete economic benefit to economic development,which deserves more social attention and consideration.The ratio of complete economic benefit versus meteorological input ranges from 134.34:1 to 228.378:1 for Shenzhen''s weather service,significantly higher than previous result of 30:1-51:1.The ratio of output versus input is relatively low in conventional industries such as agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and building industry,yet it is high in new industries such as research & experimental development service,sci-technology exchange and promotion service,business service,resident service,telecommunication & information transmission,and computer service,which are also the key service targets for future meteorological development. |
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| Keywords: | weather service benefit direct economic benefit relevant economic benefit indirect economic benefit complete economic benefit input-output model |
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