| 松花江流域水旱灾害发生规律及长期预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘清仁.松花江流域水旱灾害发生规律及长期预报研究[J].水科学进展,1994,5(4):319-327. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘清仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省水利科学研究所 哈尔滨150080 |
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| 摘 要： | 以太阳活动为中心,以长期和超长期水文预报为目标,用数理统计分析方法,分析太阳黑子、埃尔尼诺事件(El Ni?o event)对松花江区域水文影响特征与其水、旱灾害发生的基本规律。揭示了“埃尔尼诺”和太阳活动11年周期的联系,把1810年～1991年间的太阳活动按强度划分为强弱两段,给出了强弱两段中事件产生不同水文影响的黑子数临界值,建立以黑子数为参数的“同年”水文计算的方程式。分析了1898年以来强弱两段中事件影响松花江流域发生水、旱灾害的规律性;用降水量为指标分析旱涝规律,揭示了降水量按磁周期时段呈丰、枯水周期性变化的规律。研究结果为长期水文预报提供了途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳黑子 埃尔尼诺 同年 磁周期 松花江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 1992-04-04 |
A Study on Flood and Drought Change and its Long-Term Prediction in the Songhua River Basin |
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| Liu Qingren.A Study on Flood and Drought Change and its Long-Term Prediction in the Songhua River Basin[J].Advances in Water Science,1994,5(4):319-327. |
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| Authors: | Liu Qingren |
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| Institution: | Heilongjiang Hydraulic Research Institute Harbin 150080 |
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| Abstract: | Based on sun's activity data, the effect of sunspot and El Niño event on the hydrologic regime and the flood and drought long-term fluctuation of the Songhua River region was analyzed by using statistical method for long-term prediction. The relationship between the El Nino event and 11-year period of sun's activity was revealed through dividing the sun's activity into a strong and a weak section during 1810-1991, a "same year" hydrologic compution formula with sunspot numbers as a parameter was proposed, the fluctuation of the flood and drought influenced by the events in the strong and weak sections was analyzed since 1899, and the periodic change of annual precipitation with the high and low water year was given according to the magnetic cycle. |
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| Keywords: | sunspot EI Niño event same year magnetic cycle flood and drought long-term prediction Songhua River Basin |
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