| 广东春季强对流天气频数气候学判据及长期预报初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 王静渊,张杰东.广东春季强对流天气频数气候学判据及长期预报初探[J].热带气象学报,1989,0(2):160-169. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王静渊 张杰东 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析了广东3、4月强对流天气频数的区域分布和年际变化,及其与同期华南下层大气平均层结稳定度和地面热状况的相关,证明该季强对流频数的长期预报可转化为对下层大气热力学状况的预报。进一步的分析结果表明,南方涛动、南海海温、西太平洋副热带高压强度是制约广东春季温度、大气层结稳定度和强对流频数变化的重要因素。利用分析结果,建立了有物理意义的统计预报方程,预报广东中西部春季强对流频数演变趋势,效果较好。
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| 收稿时间： | 1987/8/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1989/1/26 0:00:00 |
A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CRITERIA AND THE LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF SEVERE SPRING CONVECTIVE STORMS OCCURRENCES IN GUANGDONG |
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| Wang Jingyuan and Zhang Jiedong.A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CRITERIA AND THE LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF SEVERE SPRING CONVECTIVE STORMS OCCURRENCES IN GUANGDONG[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,1989,0(2):160-169. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jingyuan and Zhang Jiedong |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory |
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| Abstract: | The analyses in this paper deal with:(1) the regional distribution and interannual variations for the occurrences of severe convective storms in March and April in Guangdong, and(2) the correlation between the mean stability for stratified atmosphere in South China and the surface thermal condition during the same season. It concludes that a long-term forecast of the convection occurrences for the time can be converted to a forecast of thermodynamics for the lower atmosphere. Further exploitation reveals that Southern Oscillation, SST in the South China Sea,and intensity of the West Pacific Sub-tropical High are important restraints for spring temperature in Guangdong, stratification stability and occurrence variations of severe convection. The conclusion is used to develop a physically significant statistics equation for predicting the variation tendency of the occurrence for severe spring convection in Central and West Guangdong. It works well. |
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