| 海口港风暴潮分析与预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁千龙.海口港风暴潮分析与预报[J].海洋预报,1999,16(1):41-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁千龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 南海舰队海洋水文气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据海口港１９７１～１９８９年的实测潮位资料和有关文献，利用差值法分离出台风增减水的过程曲线，对海口港风暴潮的特性和引起增减水的物理机制进行了初步分析。采用经验方法确定了导致本站增水的主导风向及最大的区域，建立了增水极值与本站风力、气压的相互关系，并通过逐步回归分析，给出了海口港风暴潮过程预报方程。最后利用１９９０、１９９１两年的实测资料对预报方程进行了后报检验，结果表明，预报与实测值的吻合程度较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 海口风暴潮，差值法，极值预报，过程预报 |
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF STORM SURGES IN HAIKOU HARBOUR |
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| Ding,Qianlong.ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF STORM SURGES IN HAIKOU HARBOUR[J].Marine Forecasts,1999,16(1):41-47. |
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| Authors: | Ding Qianlong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the sea level records Haikou Harbour from 1971 to 1989 and
relevant documents in the characteristics and inducing mechanism of the storm surges in the
harbour were preliminarily analysed by using got from difference process curve of each storm
surge seperated by differencing method. The prevailing wind direction for pile up in the harbour
and the area of maximum storm surges were empiricaly determined by the empirical method.
The correlationship between the maximum pile up and wind force and air pressure was
established. And forecasting equation for the storm surge in the harbour was set up through
step by step regression analysis. The results from hindcasting agreed well with the
observations. |
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| Keywords: | Haikou storm surge Difference method Pile up maximum |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
