| 利用地震资料和天文周期分析的方法开展中期地震预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 国家海洋局地震预报组
,中国科学院地质研究所计算组
,中国科学院北京天文台组.利用地震资料和天文周期分析的方法开展中期地震预报[J].地质科学,1974,9(2):107-116. |
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| 作者姓名： | 国家海洋局地震预报组 中国科学院地质研究所计算组 中国科学院北京天文台组 |
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| 摘 要： | 地震是一种复杂的自然现象,其成因及发展的物理过程,目前尚在探索之中。地震预报在世界上还是一个尚未解决的难题。但是,地震预报并不是不可能的。地震既然是一种自然现象,必然有其特定的规律。
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| 关 键 词： | , |
AN APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTICAL METHOD OF EARTHQUAKE DATA AND ASTRONOMIC PERIOD TO MODERATE INTERVAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| Abstract: | The analysis of distribution of earthquakes in time and space suggests that there are periodicity in their occurrences and the migration of epicenter along sides of parallelograms. From the correspondence of the earthquake period to the astronomical period it is expected that the earthquakes may be related to some astronomical factors. In addition, the location of the earthquakes is controlled by geological conditions. Considering the astronomical and geological factors of earthquakes a "resonance hypothesis" is proposed for the origin of earthquakes. On the basis of the tide prediction a method of moderate interval earthquake prediction is also developed.In the recent years the moderate interval predictions with the help of computer have been proved in practice with certain success. |
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