| 模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应 |
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| 作者单位： | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing, China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing, China;School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |
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| 基金项目： | This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China，grant number 2018YFC1506602;the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS，grant number QYZDY-SSW-DQC012;and the National Natural Science Foundation of China，grant number 41830967 |
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| 摘 要： | 在气候变化背景下,活动层厚度的变化会对多年冻土区水文,生态,寒区工程等产生较大的影响.本研究利用中科院气候系统模式CAS-FGOALS-g3和陆面过程模式CAS-LSM模拟分析了活动层厚度的变化趋势和相对变化.结果表明:活动层厚度整体上呈现出增加的趋势.1979-2014年,多年冻土区活动层厚度的区域平均为1.08 m,变化趋势为0.33 cm yr-1,其变化趋势与2m气温变化趋势基本一致,相对变化范围为1％-58％,平均为10.9％.在未来四种不同的气候情景(SSP-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下,到2100年预计活动层厚度的相对变化分别为10.3％,14.6％,30.1％和51％.
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| 关 键 词： | 活动层厚度 CAS-LSM 变化趋势 相对变化 气候变化 |
Simulated response of the active layer thickness of permafrost to climate change |
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| Authors: | Ruichao Li Jinbo Xie Zhenghui Xie Junqiang Gao Binghao Jia Peihua Qin Longhuan Wang Yan Wang Bin Liu Si Chen |
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| Abstract: | The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions,which affects water and energy exchange,is a key variable for assessing hydrological processes,cold-region engineering,and climate change.In this study,the authors analyzed the variation trends and relative changes of simulated ALTs using the Chinese Academy of Sciences Land Surface Model (CAS-LSM) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model,gridpoint version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-g3).Firstly,the simulated ALTs produced by CAS-LSM were shown to be reasonable by comparing them with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring observations.Then,the authors simulated the ALTs from 1979 to 2014,and their relative changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 2015 to 2100.It is shown that the ALTs have an increasing trend.From 1979 to 2014,the average ALTs and their variation trends over all permafrost regions were 1.08 m and 0.33 cm yr-1,respectively.The relative changes of the ALTs ranged from 1％ to 58％,and the average relative change was 10.9％.The variation trends of the ALTs were basically consistent with the variation trends of the 2-m air temperature.By 2100,the relative changes of ALTs are predicted to be 10.3％,14.6％,30.1％,and 51％,respectively,under the four considered hypothetical climate scenarios (SSP-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).This study indicates that climate change has a substantial impact on ALTs,and our results can help in understanding the responses of the ALTs of permafrost due to climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Active layer thickness CAS-LSM Variation trends Relative changes Climate change |
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