| 区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义 |
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| 引用本文： | 林李月,朱宇,柯文前.区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义[J].地理研究,2021,40(5):1515-1528. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林李月 朱宇 柯文前 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007;湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州350007;福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007;上海大学亚洲人口研究中心,上海200444 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金重大项目(18ZDA132);国家自然科学基金项目(41971168);国家自然科学基金项目(41971180);福建省社科规划项目(FJ2018C060) |
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| 摘 要： | 人口空间分布格局的改变既是区域协调发展战略实施的结果,也是推进区域协调发展的重要手段之一。本文以流动人口的回流空间意愿作为切入点,采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对流动人口回流的空间意愿、群体差异和影响因素进行研究,并探讨其对区域协调发展和新型城镇化的政策含义。研究发现,流动人口的回流意愿薄弱;对具有回流意愿的流动人口来说,回流空间的路径选择以返回原居地为主、乡镇中心和县城为辅。模型结果显示,流动人口回流空间选择不仅是其人力资本和流动经历正向选择的结果,也显著地受到流出地住房和流入地的就业收入和养老保险等因素的影响,而流出地的家庭需求和空间成本则无显著影响。在此背景下,政策制定者不能高估人口回流对人口流动空间格局和人口均衡发展的调整作用,也不能高估回流劳动力对流出地城镇化和城乡协调发展的促进作用,而应加强流出地城镇自我可持续发展的能力,吸引人口主动回流,以推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化战略的落实。
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| 关 键 词： | 流动人口 回流空间意愿 区域协调发展 人口分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-11 |
Locational intention of return migration of migrants and its policy implications in the context of coordinated regional development |
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| LIN Liyue,ZHU Yu,KE Wenqian.Locational intention of return migration of migrants and its policy implications in the context of coordinated regional development[J].Geographical Research,2021,40(5):1515-1528. |
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| Authors: | LIN Liyue ZHU Yu KE Wenqian |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China2. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fuzhou 350007, China3. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China |
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| Abstract: | With rapid development of urbanization and continuous decline of the birth rate, migration has become an important factor affecting population distribution and coordinated regional development in China. Return migration, which is promoted by global economic restructuring, industrial upgrading in the coastal areas, and the relocation of industries from coastal to inland areas, has emerged as a new trend of migration with potentially important spatial and developmental implications. Some important research questions, such as what the locational preferences of migrants are when they return, whether return migrants can serve as catalysts to promote in-situ urbanization in the central and western regions and coordinated regional development in China, have arisen from this new trend and need to be urgently addressed. However, so far not enough attention has been paid to this important trend of migration and its spatial and developmental effects. Using data from China Migrant Dynamic Survey in 2016, this paper addresses the above research questions by examining migrants’ locational intention of return migration, its determinants, and its policy implications for population distribution and coordinated regional development. The results show that migrants’ return intention is low, and for those with return intention, the original places of residence (villages) are the main locations they choose to return, followed by the seats of town, township and county governments. The modelling results reveal that migrants’ locational intention of return migration is not only positively related to their human capital, but also significantly affected by the factors of housing in the original places, and employment, income and endowment insurance in the destination cities. At the same time, we find that factors relating to migrants’ mobility characteristics significantly affect migrants’ locational choice of return migration, while family demand in the original places has no significant effect. These results suggest that policy makers should not overestimate the role of return migration in reshaping the spatial patterns of migration and coordinated regional development, especially the urbanization of migrants’ places of origin. Instead, efforts should be made to strengthen the capability of self-sustainable development of urban areas in the places of origin, so as to attract more active returning migrants, and promote the implementation of the coordinated regional development strategy. |
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| Keywords: | migrant locational intention of return migration coordinated regional development population distribution |
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