Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events |
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| Authors: | Yue-Ping Xu Martijn J Booij Yang-Bin Tong |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China;(2) Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance
of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return
periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation,
uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical
modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty
sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions
regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the
methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the
dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty
in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis. |
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