Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale |
| |
| Authors: | Micha Werner Paolo Reggiani Ad De Roo Paul Bates Eric Sprokkereef |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Delft Hydraulics, P.O. Box 177, 2600, MH, Delft, The Netherlands;(2) Institute of Environment and Sustainability, European Union Joint Research Centre, T.P. 263, 21020 Ispra, (VA), Italy;(3) School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK;(4) Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA), Gildemeesterplein 1, 6826 LL Arnhem, The Netherlands |
| |
| Abstract: | Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given. |
| |
| Keywords: | flood forecasting data assimilation pre-warning ensemble forecasting |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
