Bayesian estimation of undiscovered pool sizes using the discovery record |
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| Authors: | Lawrence D Stone |
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| Institution: | (1) Metron Inc., 1481 Chain Bridge Road, 22101 McLean, Virginia |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a Bayesian version of the classical model of Kaufman et al. for the order of discovery of hydrocarbon pools and the distribution of their sizes in a geologically homogeneous area. Using the model, a Bayesian method is developed for estimating the distribution of the size of the undiscovered pools using the information from the discovery record. This method avoids most of the arbitrary choices required by the modified maximum likelihood method developed by Lee and Wang. As an example, this method is applied to the same Bashaw reef data on which Lee and Wang demonstrated their approach. For this case, the Bayesian approach produces sharly lower estimates of undiscovered resources. |
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| Keywords: | petroleum resources pool size distribution Monte Carlo |
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