Correlation of icing events with meteorological variables, and two statistical models to discriminate freezing days |
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| Authors: | ZunYa Wang ShanShan Zhao and Qiang Zhang |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the characteristics of meteorological variables are statistically correlated with icing events (i.e., glaze and rime) in China, using daily observations of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and weather phenomena from 700 stations in China from 1954 to 2008. The weather conditions most favorable for icing events are investigated and two statistical models are developed to discriminate potential freezing days. Low air temperature, high relative humidity, and low wind speed are shown to be important conditions for occurrence of icing events; also, the favorable daily mean air temperature is shown to have a decreasing trend from north to south in China, while the favorable relative humidity and wind speed varies little across the country. The statistical model developed with the daily mean temperature combined with precipitation, fog, and mist weather phenomena proved to be well able to determine the possible occurrence of freezing days. The accuracy of model outputs is well above 60% for northwestern Yunnan, Guizhou, northern Guangxi, southern Hunan, and southern Jiangxi, among other regions where icing events are more frequent, and the average false alarms are few. Using observations or forecast products of conventional meteorological variables, this model has high performance and is practical and applicable for early warning and monitoring of icing events. |
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| Keywords: | icing events freezing days glaze rime weather conditions freezing-day identification model |
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