| 艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 董雯,刘志辉.艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 董雯 刘志辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046
2. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046;干旱半干旱区可持续发展国际研究中心,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046;新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，教育部高校科技创新工程重大项目培育项目，中国沙漠气象科学研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对系统内在作用机制的分析,以新疆艾比湖流域为例,利用模糊层次分析原理建立了流域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系并对其进行了量化分析。借助德尔菲专家调查法,将模糊层次分析法运用到研究区水资源承载力综合评价指标权重的求解中,对评价指标、具体评价过程和应用方法进行了分析说明。并预测了研究区未来规划水平年水资源承载力的发展趋势和方向。提出了该区域社会经济发展和水资源配置的规划方向,并探讨提高该区域水资源承载力的良策。这也为其它区域的水资源可持续开发利用研究提供了一定的借鉴和参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊层次分析法 水资源承载力 综合评价 艾比湖流域 |
Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Ebinur Lake Basin |
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| Abstract: | With the development of economy,water resources shortage and deterioration of the ecological environ-ment are the major restricted factor for economy development of the Ebinur Lake Basin.On the basis of domestic and international studies on the water resources carrying capacity,the paper introduced fuzzy analysis of un-quanti-tative decision-making unit system theories into analytic hierarchy process method(AHP)-Fuzzy Analytic Hierar-chy Process(FAHP),which can avoid the weakness of subjective and difficult in judgment matrix's consistency of AHP.Meanwhile,by putting the two methods together,it is no use to calculate complicated total degree of member-ship using fuzzy identification and optimization models.The main problems of water resources utilization are pointed out by analyzing the water resources and utilization status.The roots of the water crisis in the Ebinur Lake Basin are analyzed,and regulating approaches to alleviate water shortage are put forward.The paper used Fuzzy Analytic Hi-erarehy Process to study the regional water resources carrying capacity.On the basis of analyzing function mecha-nism among sub-systems,target variables,decision-making variables and their functions among those variables were given.It takes the Ebinur Lake Basin as an example where frangible environment,serious soil and water loss,and water resource shortage have become a serious obstruction for local economy,society and eco-environment develop-ment,the comprehensive evaluation index system of the regional water resources carrying capacity Was constructed under the theory of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process.By means of the Delphi Expert Investigating Process,the pa-per constructs three hierarchies and 30 appraising indexes by using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process in solving index weighting of water resources carrying capacity and details the appraising factors,the appraising concrete process and the application method.Then developmental directions of water resources carrying capacity were fore-casted in the future.In light with the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity in the re-search area,the regional social economy development planning,the decision-making regulation of the water distribu-tion,the methods and approaches to enhance the water resources carrying capacity were laid out.It is necessary to take some effective measures to control water demand because the Ebinur Lake Basin is facing the situation of both water shortage and water waste.The main proposed measures include industry structure regulation,water waste con-trol,and the improvement of water use efficiency,all of which is quite helpful to constrain the excess increase of water demand,and these control measures could provide references for the similar regions.This paper has offered certain reference and suggestion for the sustainable utilization research of regional water resources and sustainable development of society.It is a tentative creation and exploration in water resources carrying capacity,s analytical ap-proaches,appraising indexes,forecast method,regulating countermeasures and SO on. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process water resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation Ebinur Lake Basin |
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