| 小区域地震预测的新方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵军.小区域地震预测的新方法[J].华北地震科学,1994,12(2):66-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵军 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省地震局 石家庄050021 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法（ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型），通过对唐山老震区ＭＬ＞４．７级地震的建模，讨论ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型对唐山老震区晚期强余震预测的可行性。并比较了ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型与ＧＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型，发现ＤＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型优于ＧＭ（ｎ，ｈ）模型，同时，给出了唐山老震区晚期强余震的预报结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 余震 连续模型 |
A NEW METHOD FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN SMALL REGIONS |
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| Zhao Jun.A NEW METHOD FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN SMALL REGIONS[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,1994,12(2):66-71. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Jun |
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| Abstract: | In this paper , a new method of establishing differential equation time continuous model (DM (n,h )model)is used to evaluate the strong aftershocks (ML 4. 7)in late period of Tangshan seismic region,the probability of earthquades prediction in small regions is also given by DM (n, h) model. GM (n,h) model is compared with DM (n, h). It is found that DM (n, h ) model has more advantages thanGM (n, h) model. |
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| Keywords: | : DM (n h) model GM (n h) model strong aftershock prediction in late period of Tangshan seismic region |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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