Declining Ice Thickness on an Alpine Lake is Generated by Increased Winter Precipitation |
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| Authors: | Nel Caine |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, U.S.A. |
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| Abstract: | A 20-year record of ice thickness in late-March on an alpine lake in the Colorado Front Range shows a consistent thinning of the ice cover at 2.0 cm/yr(r = –0.931; N = 16; p < 0.01) during a period of increasing precipitation. The correlation between ice thickness and precipitation in the preceding Oct.–Mar. period is –0.439 (N = 16; p < 0.10),reflecting the insulating effect of an increase in snow cover on the lake. A second effect derived from increased precipitation occurs through additional water storage in the lake's catchment during the previous summer. This leads to a corresponding increase in groundwater flow to the lake during the winter, with a correlation between ice thickness and groundwater storage at the end of the preceding September of –0.656 (N = 16; p < 0.01). Whencombined, these two effects account for 50% of the variability in ice thickness(R = 0.714; N = 16; p < 0.01). Thus, much of the decline in ice thicknessin March is explained by two influences derived from an increase in winter precipitation: one associated with the current winter's precipitation and one with that of the previous winter. |
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