On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China |
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| Authors: | Zhengxiang Fu Jie Liu Guiping Liu |
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| Institution: | Institute of Earthquake Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, 63 Fuxing Avenue, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (MS=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (MS=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015. |
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| Keywords: | Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) Long-term seismic hazard analysis Poisson probability of earthquake occurrence |
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