| 基于NSMC方法的某核工程场地裂隙地下水数值模拟不确定分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵敬波,周志超,潘跃龙,叶浩,吴群,郭永海,李杰彪,付馨雨.基于NSMC方法的某核工程场地裂隙地下水数值模拟不确定分析[J].地质论评,2022,68(5):2022102017-2022102017. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵敬波 周志超 潘跃龙 叶浩 吴群 郭永海 李杰彪 付馨雨 |
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| 作者单位： | 核工业北京地质研究院，国家原子能机构高放废物地质处置创新中心，北京，100029;深圳中广核工程设计有限公司，广东深圳，518000;长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司，武汉，430010 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文为核设施退役及放射性废物治理专项项目（科工二司\[2019\]1496号）资助的成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 裂隙介质渗透结构表现为高度的非均质性与各项异性。为了科学有效地预测某核工程场地裂隙地下水的流动规律，揭示裂隙岩体地下水的渗流特性，笔者等采用Pilot Point调参方法与null space Monte Carlo方法（NSMC），开展了裂隙岩体渗透结构的不确定性分析研究，构建了符合实际水文地质条件的多个渗流数值模型集合。结果表明：该方法获得的各个实现地下水位模拟结果能够与实际观测数据较好吻合，可反映工程场地裂隙地下水动力特征与流动趋势；各个实现的参数化渗透结构在空间上存在一定的差异性，但整体变化趋势是保持一致的，渗透参数的不确定性表现为在实测数据分布区域相对较低，钻孔空白区域相对较高；该方法可以弥补单一、确定性模拟结果在表征裂隙介质渗透结构方面的局限性，有效地降低模型参数的不确定性与随机性。此方法对进一步提升裂隙岩体渗流模拟精度与预测能力，深化裂隙地下水迁移规律的认识具有重要的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 裂隙岩体 渗透结构 NSMC方法 null space Monte Carlo方法 不确定分析 Pilot Point方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/5/9 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/9/30 0:00:00 |
Uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling in fracture rocks for the nuclear facility site based on null space Monte Carlo method |
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| ZHAO Jingbo,ZHOU Zhichao,PAN Yuelong,YE Hao,WU Qun,GUO Yonghai,LI Jiebiao,FU Xinyu.Uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling in fracture rocks for the nuclear facility site based on null space Monte Carlo method[J].Geological Review,2022,68(5):2022102017-2022102017. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Jingbo ZHOU Zhichao PAN Yuelong YE Hao WU Qun GUO Yonghai LI Jiebiao FU Xinyu |
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| Institution: | CAEA Innovation Center for Geological Disposal of High Level Radioactive Waste, Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology, Beijing, 100029;China Nuclear Power Engineering Co., Ltd., Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000;Changjiang Survey, Planning, Design and Research Co. Ltd., Wuhan, 430010 |
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| Abstract: | The permeability in a fractured rock has obviously heterogeneous and anisotropic properties. To scientifically predict the groundwater flow characteristics of the fractured medium for a nuclear facility site, we put an emphasis on the uncertainty analysis of the hydraulic field in this paper. Methods: Based on the hydraulic test data, Pilot point calibration technique and null space Monte Carlo method were employed to establish the groundwater flow model. The corresponding uncertainties analysis was conducted to obtain a series of realizations that meet the hydrogeological conditions in support of the safety assessment. Results: The simulated hydraulic heads of different realizations were in a good agreement with the measured data. The numerical results could well reflect the actual hydrogeological conditions of the site. Besides, the hydraulic conductivity fields of different realizations exist some differences in the space domain. However, the overall change trends are similar. The variance of hydraulic conductivity filed around the boreholes is relatively low and is high in no borehole areas. Conclusions: NSMC method could well make up for the limitations of single and deterministic numerical model in characterizing the hydraulic conductivity filed in fractured medium, and effectively reduce the uncertainty and randomness of model parameters. It is positive to further improve the groundwater flow prediction ability. The simulations results could deepen the understanding of groundwater migration behavior in fractured rocks. |
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| Keywords: | fractured rock mass hydraulic conductivity filed null space Monte Carlo method model uncertainty analysis pilot point method |
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