COMPARISON OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS FOR 2 × CO2-INDUCED WARMING |
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| Authors: | KAVITA Kacholia RUTH A Reck |
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| Institution: | (1) Environmental Research Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois, 60439, U.S.A |
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| Abstract: | In this article we compile 108 national and international studies on global climate change, each projecting a quantitative impact on global surface-air temperature due to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. These predictions, documented between 1980 and 1995, are based primarily on climate-modeling research, including radiative-convective, energy-balance, and general circulation models. Collectively over the past 15 years, the average (mean) temperature change projection due to doubled CO2 is +2.62°C, with a range of 0.16–8.7°C. General circulation models tend to estimate slightly higher values (2.98°C), compared with radiative-convective models (1.98°C) and energy-balance models (2.54°C). During the years 1980 through 1995, an increasing trend in predictions is noticed, although the mean temperature change prediction each year has remained fairly consistent near 2–3°C. These findings suggest that the estimated sensitivity of the climate system continues to remain comparable to the range calculated in earlier studies. However, tremendous advancements in the capacity of climate models continue to reveal important uncertainties in the dynamic nature of global atmospheric interactions. The predictions continue to validate the need for a global policy relating to human influence on global climate change. |
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