| 云南地区地震总体活动水平起伏规律研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵洪声,和宏伟.云南地区地震总体活动水平起伏规律研究[J].地震,2000,20(2):20-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵洪声 和宏伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局,云南昆明 650041 |
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| 摘 要： | 系统分析了本世纪以来云南地区逐年最大地震强度序列的演变,揭示出了地震活动强弱循环各阶段的基本变化规律,并对其机理进行了探讨。指出地震活动的分期性和强弱交替性是云南地区地震活动的基本特征之一。在此基础上,运用混沌理论,建立了云南地区年最大地震强度的多维相空间相似统计预报模式,确定出构成最佳预报模式的最佳参变量。最后应用本模式对1987~1997年云南地区逐年最大地震强度进行了外推定量预测和定性预报准确率检验,结果表明,当外推时间L=1年和4年时,定量预测平均绝对误差$\Delta\bar{M}$分别为0.53和0.46;有无M≥6强震的辨识率=0.90,高于年自然发生率0.50。该预报模式输出稳定,可成为判断云南地区地震形势的重要依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 年最大地震强度 混沌系统 预报模式 多维相空间 |
| 收稿时间： | 1999-03-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-09-22 |
Fluctuation pattern study on the whole seismic activity in Yunnan region |
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| ZHAO Hong-sheng,HE Hong-wei.Fluctuation pattern study on the whole seismic activity in Yunnan region[J].Earthquake,2000,20(2):20-26. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hong-sheng HE Hong-wei |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China |
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| Abstract: | Evolution of sequences of maximum earthquake magni tudes since this century in Yunnan region has been systematically analyzed in this paper. The basic variation patterns in each stage of strong-weak cycles for seismic activity have been also revealed, mechanism of which is primarily explored. It is pointed out that periodicity and strong weak alternation of seismic activities are one of the basic features in Yunnan region. Base on this, a sttistical prediction mode of similarity of multidimensional phase space for maximum earthquake magnitude in Yunnan region has been established by chaos theory. The best parameters forming a best prediction mode a realso determined. Finally, the mode is used to check up the accuracy of quantitative forecast and qualitative prediction by extrapolation to maximum earthquake magnitudes for each year in 1987~1997. The result show that when L=1 and 4 years, the average absolute erro rs $\Delta \bar{M}$ are 0.53 and 0.46 respectively. The disting uishing rate for occurrence of M≥6 strong earthquakes is =0.90, which is hig her than that of natural one of 0.50. This prediction mode is stable, which can be taken as important evidence to judge seismic tendency in Yunna n region. |
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| Keywords: | Annual maximum earthquake magnitude Chaos system Prediction mode Multi-dimentional phase space |
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