| 集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 张瑜,时洋,周勃旸,马旭林.集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(2):268-279. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张瑜 时洋 周勃旸 马旭林 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044;广东省气象台, 广东 广州 510080;中国民用航空青岛空中交通管理站, 山东 青岛 266108 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502000);国家自然科学基金资助项目(91437113);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506005);中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风场初始扰动的空间物理结构及其时空演变特征,为集合预报初始扰动的合理构造提供客观依据。结果表明:绝大部分风场初始扰动位于主要天气系统附近,并且具有显著的流依赖特征;集合离散度与扰动能量随着预报时效的延长都呈现出合理发展的状态,对流层低层以扰动内能为主,高层扰动动能占主要成分,且扰动动能在演化过程中起主导作用;同时,离散度结构的演变与天气形势的发展密切相关,这从另一种角度体现了扰动结构随流型依赖的特性。研究结果验证了区域集合预报比全球集合预报能捕获更丰富的中小尺度扰动信息,全球集合预报系统中ECMWF的中大尺度扰动结构更为合理,但我国T639集合预报系统更适用于中国地区;相对于ECMWF的全球集合预报,我国的集合预报系统一般存在高层离散度不足的问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 初始扰动 物理结构 演变特征 风场扰动 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/9/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/4/9 0:00:00 |
Physical structures and evolution characteristics of wind perturbation in ensemble prediction |
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| ZHANG Yu,SHI Yang,ZHOU Boyang,MA Xunlin.Physical structures and evolution characteristics of wind perturbation in ensemble prediction[J].大气科学学报,2022,45(2):268-279. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yu SHI Yang ZHOU Boyang MA Xunlin |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China;Qingdao Air Traffic Management Station of Civil Aviation of China, Qingdao 266108, China |
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| Abstract: | The proper initial perturbation structure is the core of constructing ensemble prediction, and the quality of initial perturbation directly affects the quality and overall performance of ensemble forecasting.This study focuses on the uncertainty of the initial value, then analyzes and reveals its spatial physical structure and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the initial disturbance in ensemble prediction.Therefore, this paper provides an objective basis for the rational construction of the initial disturbance in ensemble prediction.In this study, based on the prediction field of the ECMWF, the T639 global ensemble forecast system in China and the GRAPES regional ensemble forecast system, the physical structure and evolution characteristics of wind perturbation in the three ensemble forecasts are revealed by analyzing the initial disturbance component, structure of ensemble spread, and evolution of the perturbation energy.The analysis results show that most of the initial perturbation are located near the main weather systems, and the perturbation has the characteristics of flow-dependence.In addition, the ensemble spread and Total Perturbation Energy present a developing state over forecast hours.Meanwhile, the lower atmosphere is dominated by the Internal Perturbation Energy, while the higher atmosphere is dominated by the Kinetic Perturbation Energy, and the Kinetic Perturbation Energy is dominated in the evolution process.The evolution of the ensemble spread is also closely related to the evolution of the weather situation.This reflects the dependence of the perturbation structure on the flow pattern from another angle.The results confirm that the regional ensemble prediction can reflect more mesoscale and small-scale disturbance information than the global ensemble prediction.The perturbation structure of the ECMWF is more reasonable in the global ensemble prediction system, but the prediction products of T639 is more applicable for China.Compared with the ECMWF, the domestic ensemble prediction system has the drawback of insufficient high-level spread. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble prediction initial perturbation physical structure evolution characteristics wind perturbations |
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