| 基于EMD的我国经济增长波动多尺度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦贤宏,段学军,李慧.基于EMD的我国经济增长波动多尺度分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(2):44-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦贤宏 段学军 李慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京,210008
2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京,210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40671077)，江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2004164) |
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| 摘 要： | 经验模态分解(EMD)方法是一种新的处理非平稳、非线性数据序列的方法,能够分解出研究对象在不同尺度上的波动信息。该文对1953年以来我国经济增长率进行了EMD分解及相应分析。结果显示:1)我国经济增长存在多尺度的周期性波动,与西方经济学中的4种周期基本一致。2)根据各IMF分量的波动变化趋势及其绝对值贡献率的走势分析可以得出,我国经济在未来一段时间内仍将保持高速增长态势。3)我国三大地区均已进入高速增长时期,中西部地区将在未来我国经济增长中扮演越来越重要的角色。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 波动 多尺度分析 经验模态分解 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-0504(2008)02-0044-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月27日 |
Multi-time Scale Analysis on the Economic Growth in China Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition |
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| QIN Xian-hong,DUAN Xue-jun,LI Hui.Multi-time Scale Analysis on the Economic Growth in China Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2008,24(2):44-47. |
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| Authors: | QIN Xian-hong DUAN Xue-jun LI Hui |
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| Abstract: | Empirical Mode Decomposition is a useful method for analyzing the nonlinear and non-stationary time series.Different from the traditional method in doing integral transformation to signal,it can decompose signal into IMFs(Intrinsic Mode Function),which contain and extrude the local character of signal.So the characteristic information of the original signal can be well held by analyzing the IMFs.This paper decomposes Chinese economic growth rate from 1953 by Empirical Mode Decomposition and analyzes it.The results indicate:1) There are multi-time fluctuations in Chinese economic growth,corresponding four economic cycles of western economics.2) Chinese economy will keep its high growth until about 2025.3) China has entered a period that the whole country is in high economic growth,and the central and western region would play a more important role in the country's economic growth. |
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| Keywords: | economic growth fluctuation multi-time scale analysis Empirical Mode Decomposition |
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