Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region |
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Authors: | R Secanell D Bertil C Martin X Goula T Susagna M Tapia P Dominique D Carbon J Fleta |
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Institution: | (1) GEOTER, Pòle Géoenvironment, 3, rue Jean Monnet, 24830 Clapiers, France;(2) Institut Geològic de Catalunya (IGC), Balmes, 209–211, 08006 Barcelona, Spain;(3) Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), 3, Avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex 2, France;(4) Centre Mediterrani d’Investigacions Marines i Ambientals (CSIC-CMIMA), passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain |
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Abstract: | A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team
composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between
the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake
scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in
a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined
with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation
based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries.
Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists.
A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with
published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology
leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods
of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration
contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected
for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained
may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra. |
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Keywords: | Seismic hazard Monte Carlo Probabilistic Seismic zonation France Spain Andorra |
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