| IMAGE PREDICTION FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN AREAS |
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| 作者姓名： | Zhou Jiayu Yang Jinxi |
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| 作者单位： | Anhui Research Institute of Meteorological Science Hefei，Anhui Research Institute of Meteorological Science，Hefei |
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| 摘 要： | A new method is presented for the prediction of a torrential rain (TR) area, where some atmo-physical parameters are used with their given values as criteria most favorable for the occurrence ofTR; an over-all examination is done of the relative favorabilities of these factors for the TR productionin other regions which are then composited and numeralized by means of the theory of nonlinearmapping with the results plotted (‘reflected') on a weather chart, allowing to make an objectiveforecast of the TR area. The preliminary results indicate that the technique is able to objectivelycomposite and clearly exhibit principal distribution features of the parameters on the map, thus show-ing a certain amount of effectiveness for the diagnosis and prediction of a TR area. Regression analysis is used for factor selection to automatically discriminate and locate the jet-stream axis with the aid of a computer. In the calculation of the mapping the gradient method isadopted, in the light of the functional properties of the optimized index K, in place of the simplerelaxational iteration now in general use, thus getting rid of the non-convergence by the iterationmethod because of the increased number of the samples used. The square of the gradient mod-ulus <10~(-4) is set to be the criterion for the iteration convergence. The improved method canmeet the requirements of operational forecasts generally with 50 or less iterations.
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| 收稿时间： | 1987/2/15 0:00:00 |
IMAGE PREDICTION FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN AREAS |
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| Zhou Jiayu,Yang Jinxi.IMAGE PREDICTION FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN AREAS[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1988,2(1):64-73. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Jiayu and Yang Jinxi |
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| Institution: | Anhui Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Hefei;Anhui Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Hefei |
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