| 1961-2016年渭河流域极端降水事件研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周旗,张海宁,任源鑫.1961-2016年渭河流域极端降水事件研究[J].地理科学,2020,40(5):833-841. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周旗 张海宁 任源鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院/陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室, 陕西 宝鸡 721013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41771215);陕西省科技厅科技统筹计划重点项目(2016KTCL03-17) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1961-2016 年渭河流域26 个气象站点的逐日降水数据,选取与极端降水事件密切相关的9 个指数,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变点检验和方差分析等方法,揭示渭河流域极端降水事件的变化趋势、突变情况以及渭河流域上、中、下游降水情况的差异特征,对研究区未来极端降水事件提供科学预测和理论参考。结果表明：① 渭河流域上、中、下游地区及整个流域的年总降水量分别以16.588 mm/10a、8.319 mm/10a、6.703 mm/10a和9.544 mm/10a的速率下降,表明渭河流域56 a来降水总量存在逐年减少的趋势,整个渭河流域地区呈现变干的趋势。② 降水强度(SDII)、强降水总量(R95PTOT)和极端降水总量(R99PTOT)在整体上均呈现上升趋势,极端降水总量的上升趋势高于强降水总量,上游地区的上升趋势高于中下游地区,表明渭河流域极端降水强度有所增强,极端降水事件发生频率有所增大。③ 渭河流域出现极端降水事件的年份集中在20世纪90年代和21世纪初期,且降水情况的年际差异较大,中游地区的变化更为明显。④ 相关分析显示中下游地区对整个流域极端降水事件的发生情况起到较大的贡献。
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| 关 键 词： | 渭河流域 极端降水 Mann-Kendall检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-07-10 |
Extreme Precipitation Events in the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016 |
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| Zhou Qi,Zhang Haining,Ren Yuanxin.Extreme Precipitation Events in the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2020,40(5):833-841. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Qi Zhang Haining Ren Yuanxin |
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| Institution: | College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on 26 of the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016 in the daily precipitation data of weather stations, the selection is closely related to the extreme precipitation events 9 index, using the method of linear trend, Mann Kendall mutation point test and variance analysis, reveals the tendency of the extreme precipitation events, mutation of the Weihe River Basin and on, the precipitation of the middle and lower reaches of Weihe River Basin the differences of characteristics of extreme precipitation events for the study area in the future to provide scientific prediction and theory reference. The results showed that: 1) The annual total precipitation in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Weihe River Basin and the whole basin decreased at the rates of 16.588 mm/10a, 8.319 mm/10a, 6.703 mm/10a and 9.544 mm/10a, respectively, indicating that the total precipitation in the Weihe River Basin has been decreasing year by year in the past 56 years, and the whole Weihe river Basin has been drying up. 2) Precipitation intensity (SDII), heavy rain amount (R95PTOT) and extreme precipitation amount (R99PTOT) tend to rise on the whole, extreme precipitation amount rise higher than the strong precipitation, rise higher than the middle and lower reaches area of the upstream region, shows that the strength of the Weihe River Basin in extreme precipitation increased, the extreme precipitation event frequency is increased. 3) The years of extreme precipitation events in the Weihe River Basin were concentrated in the 1990s and the early 21st century, and the inter-annual differences in precipitation were large, with more obvious changes in the middle reaches. 4) According to the results of relevant analysis, it is concluded that the middle and lower reaches of the basin to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events play a greater role. |
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| Keywords: | the Weihe River Basin extreme precipitation Mann-Kendall Test |
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