| 震前多种前兆异常形态特征及预测意义 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛艳,张永仙.震前多种前兆异常形态特征及预测意义[J].地震,2004,24(1):145-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛艳 张永仙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 十五"国家重点科技攻关项目(2001BA601B01 01 04) |
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| 摘 要： | 对1970年以来华北地区31次MS≥5.0地震前多种前兆异常形态特征进行了系统研究, 结果认为: ① 在强震前短临阶段, 普遍存在垂直形变和水位异常形态的四象限性分布, 且这种象限分布特征与主震震源机制解具有一定的相关性。 即在压缩区, 垂直形变上升, 水位亦上升。 在膨胀区, 垂直形变和水位都下降; ② 地倾斜异常在近源区与远源区具有明显的差异, 其中多数强震前表现为距离震中近的台站向与震中相反的方向倾斜, 而远离震中的台站, 其倾斜方向指向震中; ③ 地电阻率异常形态以下降为主; 多数水化异常(气体)表现为短期上升而临震转平或下降; 电磁波通常为短临异常。 基于上述前兆异常形态特征, 特别是垂直形变和水位异常形态的四象限分布特点, 提出了根据前兆场异常特征判断发震地点和孕震状态的思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 前兆异常形态特征 地区性 象限性 强震短期预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3274(2004)01-0145-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年8月4日 |
The characteristics of multi-precursor anomaly patterns and their application in earthquake prediction |
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| XUE Yan,ZHANG Yong-xian.The characteristics of multi-precursor anomaly patterns and their application in earthquake prediction[J].Earthquake,2004,24(1):145-154. |
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| Authors: | XUE Yan ZHANG Yong-xian |
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| Institution: | Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis for characteristics of multi-precursor anomaly patterns of 31 earthquakes with M_S 5.0 occurred in North China since 1970, some results are extracted as follows: 1. In short-term and impending stage, it is universal that deformation precursors and water level precursors are emerged in quadrant distribution, which is related to the focal mechanism. In compressional area, deformation and water level precursors show ascending types. But in expansionary area, they descent down; 2. The types of tilt anomalies are different in different areas. Before most of strong earthquakes, the tilt anomalies near the source incline opposite to the epicenter, while the ones far from the source incline toward the epicenter; 3. Most of the apparent resistivity anomalies show descending types. Water (gas) chemistry anomalies usually go up in the short term and descent down in the impending term. Base on the comprehension for the characteristics of earthquake precursors' patterns, we proposed an idea regarding determining the location of the coming strong earthquakes and the seismogenic state. |
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| Keywords: | Characteristics of precursory patterns Regional feature Quadrant feature Short-term strong earthquake prediction |
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