| 基于气候重建资料及均生函数-最优子集回归模型的降水预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 马龙,刘廷玺,冀鸿兰,高瑞忠.基于气候重建资料及均生函数-最优子集回归模型的降水预测[J].水文,2013,33(1):63-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马龙 刘廷玺 冀鸿兰 高瑞忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特,010018 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50869005);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2010BS0608);内蒙古农业大学“水资源利用”创新团队计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用由科尔沁沙地榆树区域综合年表而重建的181a降水序列,采用均生函数-最优子集回归(MGF-OSR)预测模型对科尔沁沙地降水进行了5a情景的预测,克服了以往序列短的不足.模型建模期相对误差绝对值在3％、5％、10％以内的年数分别占建模年数的36.46％、64.64％、93.37％,建模期模拟精度较高.2007～2010年实测检验期,模拟与实测值保持了方向一致性,各年份相对误差绝对值分别为11.40％、6.73％、22.06％、5.49％,大部分年份预测较理想.经预测,2011～2015年期间,2011年、2012年、2014年和2015年为降水正常年份,2013年为降水偏干年份.与实际情况对比,2011年与预测一致,2012年稍有差别.总体上,2011～2015年降水变化较为平缓.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候重建资料 均生函数 最优子集回归 科尔沁 降水 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/10/16 0:00:00 |
Precipitation Short-term Forecasting Based on Climate Reconstruction Data and MeanGenerating Function-optimal Subset Regression (MGF-OSR) Prediction Model |
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| MA Long,LIU Tingxi,JI Honglan,GAO Ruizhong.Precipitation Short-term Forecasting Based on Climate Reconstruction Data and MeanGenerating Function-optimal Subset Regression (MGF-OSR) Prediction Model[J].Hydrology,2013,33(1):63-67. |
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| Authors: | MA Long LIU Tingxi JI Honglan GAO Ruizhong |
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| Institution: | (College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China) |
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| Abstract: | The future 5-year precipitation forecasting was made for Horchin sandy land by using Mean Generating Function-Optimal SubsetRegression (MGF-OSR) based on the reconstructed series of 181years. The years that the absolute values of relative errors less than of 3%,5%, and 10% respectively account for 36.46%, 64.64%, 93.37% of the modeling years, and the simulation accuracy is higher in modeling pe -riod. The simulated values are consistent with observed data in the experiment period from 2007 to 2010, during which the absolute values ofthe relative errors are 11.40%, 6.73%, 22.06% and 5.49%, respectively. By forecasting, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 are normal years for pre -cipitation, and 2013 is a dry year for precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | climate reconstruction data mean generating function optimal subset regression Horqin precipitation forecast |
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