A Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using a Modified Precursor Method |
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| Authors: | R S Dabas Kavita Sharma Rupesh M Das K G M Pillai Parvati Chopra N K Sethi |
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| Institution: | (1) Radio and Atmospheric Sciences Division, National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, 110012, India |
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| Abstract: | Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days
when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks
1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of
the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the
best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted
and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude
of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011. |
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