Pressure effects on regional mean sea level trends in the German Bight in the twenty-first century |
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| Authors: | Frauke Albrecht Ralf Weisse |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile
2. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany
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| Abstract: | The effect of large-scale atmospheric pressure changes on regional mean sea level projections in the German Bight in the twenty-first century are considered. A developed statistical model is applied to climate model data of sea level pressure for the twenty-first century to assess the potential contribution of large-scale atmospheric changes to future sea level changes in the German Bight. Using 78 experiments, an ensemble mean of 1.4-cm rise in regional mean sea level is estimated until the end of the twenty-first century. Changes are somewhat higher for realisations of the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2, but generally do not exceed a few centimeters. This is considerably smaller than the changes expected from steric and self-gravitational effects. Large-scale changes in sea level pressure are thus not expected to provide a substantial contribution to twenty-first century sea level changes in the German Bight. |
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