Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: limited deployment scenarios and beyond |
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| Authors: | Masahiro Sugiyama Yosuke Arino Takanobu Kosugi Atsushi Kurosawa Shingo Watanabe |
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| Institution: | 1. Policy Alternatives Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;2. Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Kyoto, Japan;3. Keio University Global Security Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan;4. College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka, Japan;5. Research and Development Division, The Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan;6. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions. Key policy insights A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation
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| Keywords: | Participatory scenario research solar geoengineering solar radiation management stakeholder engagement transdisciplinary approach |
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