Distinguishing features of the seismicity in South Kamchatka in the 20th century with regard to the Avacha Bay seismic gap |
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| Authors: | I P Kuzin O N Solov’eva |
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| Institution: | (1) Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The distinguishing features of the seismicity throughout South Kamchatka and within the Avacha Bay seismic gap in the 20th century are considered. The evolution of the evaluation of the magnitudes of the strongest earthquakes for this gap from M = 7.25–7.5 in 1965–1980 to 7.75–8.0 after 1980 is discussed. On the basis of the method for studying the characteristic features of the seismicity within a seismic gap developed for the Central Kuriles, the seismicity of South Kamchatka is considered for depths of 0–100, 101–200, and more than 200 km according to the data from the New Catalog 6] for the period from 1901 to 1974 (M ≥ 6.1), the Special Catalog for North Eurasia 3] for the period from 1975 to 1993 (M ≥ 4.5), and additional data from the Kamchatka stations for the period from 1994 to 1997. It was found that the seismic process within the region of South Kamchatka is typical of the island arcs; i.e, most of the earthquakes considered and the maximum of the seismic energy released are concentrated in the lithosphere at depths of 0–100 km. The seismological situation in the zone of Avacha Bay is found to be similar to that within the second kind of the seismic gap during the precursory seismic quiescence of the 1978 Oaxac earthquake with M = 7.8 in Central Mexico. This allows us to consider the zone of Avacha Bay as a possible seismic gap of the second kind. Such a result can be considered as a suggestion of the possibility of the occurrence in Avacha Bay of an earthquake with M ～ 8 according to the long-term forecast for the region of the Kuriles and Kamchatka made by S.A. Fedotov. |
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